Excellent, incisive Morgan Stanley forum today with Gen. Petraeus on Russia and Ukraine: Russian military failing to integrate air and ground war, and logistics collapsed, leaving units without fuel or food. Quick victory was stymied by surprisingly engaged Ukrainian resistance. In northern Ukraine,

Unable to invade off-road over muddy ground, shut off internet and utilities -- or to dominate the cyber and info war.

Russian military, as in prior wars, will shift to scorched-earth policy, including bombarding residential areas of cities. Expect heavy casualties in both military and civilian populations.

More success on southern coast and in Donbas where Russia may succeed in capturing whole coastline and may threaten Moldova, where it already has occupying forces.